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Stock market 2024: Hope to "walk on green grass"

When the last trading session of 2023 ended (December 29), Mr. Phan Minh Duc - a professional stock investor lamented with a sigh: "I don't want to look back, the past year is full of footprints." red…".

Perhaps Mr. Duc's words "red footprints" seem to refer to the dominant color scheme in the stock market in 2023. A color scheme that no investor wants to see.

Sharing in the press about the stock market in 2023, Mr. Ho Sy Hoa - Director of Research and Investment Consulting of DNSE Securities Company only let out two words: Disappointed.

2023 - A year full of emotions

Looking at the stock market's developments in 2023, it is not all "red" as many investors say. During the period from the beginning of the year to the beginning of September, the market moved in a positive direction. Although increasing sessions are not the main points, they account for more in number than decreasing sessions. At one point, the VN-Index recorded an increase of nearly 24% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching more than 1,255 points.

At that time, experts believed that the stock market would prosper due to benefiting from the State Bank's loose monetary policies with up to 4 cuts in operating interest rates to support economic growth. .

In general, in the first 3 quarters of 2023, the Vietnamese stock market shares the same trend as the world stock market when there are quite positive recovery points after a stormy 2022. Specifically, VN-Index increases by 12% in 2023 and is among the top indexes with the strongest increase in Asia. However, this increase is not enough to bring the index back to its old peak. Even when the VN-Index's highest number of the year was in early September when it reached nearly 1,250 points, it was still far from the historic peak of 1,500.

The "sad" thing is that after the peak of that year, the market adjusted downward and in the past 2 months, VN-Index lost more than 200 points. Thus, the results of the previous period almost disappeared after the adjustment period, mainly due to peripheral factors. Specifically, the DXY index (measuring the strength of the USD) increased by more than 7% from mid-July to early October, putting pressure on the exchange rate, leading to the State Bank of Vietnam implementing an intervention measure of withdrawing an amount of money.

A large amount of money enters the system through the T-bill channel. Meanwhile, foreign investors maintained a net selling move. Domestic investor sentiment was affected, causing the VN-Index to decline, although domestic macro factors remained positive.

At the end of 2023, VN-Index fluctuates around the 1,100 point threshold, closing the December 29 session at 1,129.93 points, an increase of 12.1% compared to the end of 2022. A number ending the year does not please investors. invest.

Many optimistic perspectives right from the beginning of 2024

One of the important factors holding back Vietnamese stocks is structural imbalance. According to data from Bloomberg, the group of financial and real estate stocks on the Vietnamese stock market accounts for a total proportion of more than 57% of capitalization. This number is much higher than regional markets such as Thailand, Indonesia, China, etc. Compared to leading markets in the world, this proportion of Vietnam is even superior.

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With this proportion structure, the recovery of Vietnamese stocks depends almost entirely on the recovery ability of financial and real estate stocks. However, these industry groups are facing many challenges and the prospect of recovery is still open despite many support and solution measures being put in place.

In general, the real estate market is still relatively gloomy, affecting the revenue of real estate businesses. This makes it difficult to access credit capital from banks, while the bond channel, although more stable, still has bottlenecks that cannot be completely resolved.

In addition, the pressure to repay debt in 2024 is still huge for the real estate group when it is estimated that about VND 123,000 billion of bonds will mature. FiinGroup said that real estate is a key industry and one of the main risk factors for next year's economic recovery lies in this group. The real estate market is expected to recover in mid-2024, but there are currently no detailed indicators of recovery time.

Meanwhile, securities companies still have optimistic forecasts about the Vietnamese stock market in 2024 and believe that the VN-Index will return near its historical peak.